Peter Mann de Toledo
@inpe.br
DIIAV
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Paleoecology
Paleomammalogy
Ecological modelling
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Leandro O. Salles, Carlos R. Moraes Neto, Luís H. S. Almeida, Renato R. C. Ramos, Fernando V. Laureano, Luciano J. S. dos Anjos, Luiz Flamarion B. de Oliveira, Marcione B. de Oliveira, Joaquin Arroyo-Cabrales, Patrícia G. Guedes,et al.
Informa UK Limited
Luciano J. S. Anjos, Gabriela S. R. Gonçalves, Vítor A. B. Dutra, Amanda G. Rosa, Lucyana B. Santos, Márcia N. R. Barros, Everaldo B. de Souza, and Peter M. de Toledo
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Climate change is among the principal threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, especially to megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. In this study, we investigate how it could affect an iconic forest species—Bertholletia excelsa—(the Brazil nut) which has values in multiple dimensions in an Amazonian context. We used an ensemble from various distribution modeling methods designed for four different climate scenarios from CMIP6 by the end of the century. Then, we simulate how spatial dynamics under climate change, including explicitly dispersal events, can affect the persistence, colonization, and potential extinction of Bertholletia excelsa in the future. Our results show that by the end of the century there would be a generalized loss of suitability on the Amazon biome, regardless of the climate scenario evaluated, which could promote a significant loss (up to 94%) of the area available for the species via extinction. Our results also show that, in the future, the species would colonize higher altitudes in search of favorable conditions for its survival. Finally, we detected that areas that had previously become unsuitable because of climate change would have favorable conditions by the end of the century. Such an outcome could be useful in fostering an active restoration agenda that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on species in this study.
Fabrício Sousa da Silva, Laurent Polidori, Peter Man de Toledo, and Aline Maria Meiguins de Lima
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN
O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar o potencial de imagens de radar de abertura sintética para identificar as diferentes classes de cobertura de terras representativas para a Amazônia Oriental, em área de proteção. Foram analisadas imagens distribuídas gratuitamente referentes aos sensores ALOS PALSAR-2 (banda L, polarização HH e HV) e Sentinel 1A (banda C, polarizações VV e VH), referente ao mês de novembro de 2022, as quais foram avaliadas separadamente e integradas para identificação, através de classificação por aprendizagem de máquina, das seguintes classes: Cobertura Florestal, Cobertura Campestre, Campos úmidos e Cobertura Hídrica. Os resultados mostram que os alvos de interesse, em ambiente representativo da Amazônia, se apresentam melhor diferenciados através da integração multifrequencial e multipolarização entre as bandas C e L, permitindo alcançar acurácia de classificação excelente e todas as classes escolhidas apresentaram índice Kappa satisfatórios
Everaldo B. de Souza, Brenda C. S. Silva, Emilene M. F. Serra, Melgris J. Becerra Ruiz, Alan C. Cunha, Paulo J. P. O. Souza, Luciano P. Pezzi, Edson J. P. da Rocha, Adriano M. L. Sousa, João de Athaydes Silva,et al.
MDPI AG
The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 future scenarios), exposure (directly affected population), and vulnerability (subdimensions of susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity by using multidimensional indicators), the latter two using current datasets provided by the official Census IBGE 2022, we document a quantitative assessment of the risk R of natural disasters in the BLA region. We evidenced a worrying and imminent intensification of the curve of R in most Amazonian municipalities over the next two 25-year periods. The overall results of the highest proportions of R (total municipalities affected) pointed out the Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão as the main states, presenting projected categories of R high in the near future (2015 to 2039) and very high in the far future (2040 to 2064). The detailed assessment of the susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity allowed us to elucidate the principal indicators that aggravate the degree of vulnerability: economy, the precariousness of urban infrastructure, medical services, communication, and urban mobility, whose combined factors, unfortunately, reveal a widespread poverty profile along the small Amazonian municipalities. Our scientific findings can assist decision makers in targeted strategies planning and public policies to minimize and mitigate ongoing and future climate change.
Vítor Abner Borges Dutra, Maurício Humberto Vancine, Aline Maria Meiguins de Lima, and Peter Mann de Toledo
Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica
O Nordeste Paraense sofreu profundas mudanças no decorrer dos seus ciclos de ocupação. Nessa região, a conversão de floresta para outras classes de uso e cobertura da terra ocorre há centenas de anos. Com o advento do Sensoriamento Remoto, é possível quantificar essas mudanças. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do estudo foi analisar a dinâmica da paisagem de três bacias hidrográficas no Nordeste Paraense entre 1985 e 2019 e as implicações dessas mudanças nas classes de formação florestal e mangue. A metodologia adotada abrangeu ferramentas associadas às geotecnologias no subsídio de uma análise integrada no âmbito das bacias hidrográficas. Os resultados evidenciaram uma conversão de floresta para pastagem proporcional à área do município de Castanhal/PA (aproximadamente 1.000 km²). A maior faixa de alteração ficou concentrada nas áreas de nascentes das bacias hidrográficas, como o expressivo aumento de 159% do número de manchas da classe formação florestal (de 2547 para 6604); a redução da média da área de mancha de formação florestal de 121,9 para 31,9 ha; e a redução do percentual de núcleo dessa classe de 33,7 para 16,2%. Por outro lado, não foram evidenciadas mudanças significativas na classe de mangue na área de estudo. Assim, as medidas de conservação e recuperação de áreas importantes para a manutenção dos ecossistemas costeiros e sistemas hídricos locais devem ser priorizadas pelos tomadores de decisão.Palavras-chave: MapBiomas; Formação florestal; Pastagem; Mangue; Métricas de paisagem. Landscape dynamics and ecosystem fragmentation in three river basins in the Eastern Amazon between 1985 and 2019 AbstractPará’s Northeast has undergone deep changes during its occupation cycles. In this region, the conversion of forest to other classes of land use and cover has been going on for hundreds of years. With the advent of Remote Sensing, it is possible to quantify these changes. In this sense, the objective of the study was to analyze the landscape dynamics of three watersheds in Pará’s Northeast between 1985 and 2019, and the implications of these changes in the classes of forest formation and mangrove. The methodology adopted included tools associated with geotechnologies to support an integrated analysis within the scope of watersheds. The results showed a conversion of forest to pasture proportional to the area of the municipality of Castanhal/PA (approximately 1,000 km²). The largest range of alteration was concentrated in the areas of headwaters of the hydrographic basins, such as the expressive increase of 159% in the number of patches of the forest formation class (from 2547 to 6604); the reduction of the average area of forest formation patch from 121.9 to 31.9 ha; and the reduction in the core percentage of this class from 33.7 to 16.2%. On the other hand, no significant changes were observed in the mangrove class in the study area. Thus, measures for the conservation and recovery of important areas for the maintenance of coastal ecosystems and local water systems must be prioritized by decision-makers.Keywords: MapBiomas; Forest formation; Pasture; Mangrove; Landscape metrics
Patricia F. Pinho, Moara T. Canova, Peter M. Toledo, Adrian Gonzalez, David M. Lapola, Jean P. Ometto, and Mark Stafford Smith
Regional Environmental Change Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra, Peter Mann de Toledo, Celso von Randow, Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar, Patrícia Verônica Pinheiro Sales Lima, Luciano Jorge Serejo dos Anjos, and Karine Rocha Aguiar Bezerra
Elsevier BV
Lincoln M. Alves, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Gustavo F. B. Arcoverde, Evandro A. Branco, and Peter Toledo
Springer International Publishing
Tassio Koiti Igawa, Peter Mann de Toledo, and Luciano J. S. Anjos
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.
Andréa Coelho, Ana Aguiar, Peter Toledo, Roberto Araújo, Otávio do Canto, Ricardo Folhes, and Marcos Adami
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractFollowing the boom of soybean production from 2000 to 2006 in the Santarém region of the Brazilian Amazon, the mechanized agricultural area remained stable, unlike other regions. Deforestation was controlled, but this initial expansion led to the restructuring of the agrarian space in the region. Given this scenario, we aimed to understand the mechanized agricultural expansion effects in the region by comparing the periods 1999–2007 and 2007–2015. Our hypothesis was that it impacted heterogeneous actors and land tenure categories. We combined multi-temporal land change maps derived from remote sensing to land tenure information to evaluate how land change transitions differed over time, both in public (traditional and sustainable use official settlements) and private areas. In private areas, we observed a 12% reduction in forest cover in 1999–2007 and a 2.5% reduction in 2007–2015. In sustainable use settlements, forest loss was only 3% and 2% in each period, respectively. Mechanized agriculture occupied areas of family farming (42%), secondary vegetation (20%), pasture (20%), and forest areas (18%). Family farming lost most of the area to other uses. Within settlements, the area of family farming increased by 50% at the expense of the forest area. We conclude that the rise and fall of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon hide multiple social and territorial processes. Understanding such dynamics is critical for establishing measures toward a sustainable future.
Gabriel S. Hofmann, Manoel F. Cardoso, Ruy J. V. Alves, Eliseu J. Weber, Alexandre A. Barbosa, Peter M. Toledo, Francisco B. Pontual, Leandro de O. Salles, Heinrich Hasenack, José L. P. Cordeiro,et al.
Wiley
The Brazilian Cerrado is a global biodiversity hotspot with notoriously high rates of native vegetation suppression and wildfires over the past three decades. As a result, climate change can already be detected at both local and regional scales. In this study, we used three different approaches based on independent datasets to investigate possible changes in the daytime and nighttime temperature and air humidity between the peak of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season in the Brazilian Cerrado. Additionally, we evaluated the tendency of dew point depression, considering it as a proxy to assess impacts on biodiversity. Monthly increases of 2.2−4.0℃ in the maximum temperatures and 2.4−2.8℃ in the minimum temperatures between 1961 and 2019 were recorded, supported by all analyzed datasets which included direct observations, remote sensing, and modeling data. The warming raised the vapor pressure deficit, and although we recorded an upward trend in absolute humidity, relative humidity has reduced by ~15%. If these tendencies are maintained, gradual air warming will make nightly cooling insufficient to reach the dew point in the early hours of the night. Therefore, it will progressively reduce both the amount and duration of nocturnal dewfall, which is the main source of water for numerous plants and animal species of the Brazilian Cerrado during the dry season. Through several examples, we hypothesize that these climate changes can have a high impact on biodiversity and potentially cause ecosystems to collapse. We emphasize that the effects of temperature and humidity on Cerrado ecosystems cannot be neglected and should be further explored from a land use perspective.
Rita Marcia da Silva Pinto Vieira, Javier Tomasella, Alexandre Augusto Barbosa, Silvia Palotti Polizel, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto, Fabrícia Cristina Santos, Yara da Cruz Ferreira, and Peter Mann de Toledo
Elsevier BV
Maria Carolina Chaves de Sousa, Peter Mann de Toledo, and Filipe Gomes Dias
Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica
At the beginning of the 20th century, urbanization and occupation of privileged spaces at the expense of “lowland” spaces and close to a floodplain. The “lowlands” were occupied by a population, mostly with socioeconomic needs, forming housing groups susceptible to flooding and flooding. To bring the recognition of rights to these occupants, a land regularization work was carried out by the Federal University of Pará - UFPA, together with public entities from the State and the Union. The article aims to present and compare the degree of socio-environmental vulnerability in the area of land C of UFPA in the municipality of Belém, object of land regularization activity, applying indicators and indices related to social, economic, legal and environmental issues. The results show that the degree of vulnerability is high in the years surveyed, concluding that the legal regularization work carried out in the area was only patrimonial, in order to transfer responsibilities for land use to the beneficiary residents and the recognition of the right of that title by law. . Effective land regularization work should involve a set of bodies responsible for the social, environmental, urban and land areas so that, in a concatenated and long-term manner, the work carried out is carried out so that the results are captured by the indicators and that the data decrease the degree of socio-environmental vulnerability in the studied area.
Luciano J.S. Anjos, Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Calil Torres Amaral, Tassio Koiti Igawa, and Peter Mann de Toledo
Elsevier BV
Natlia L. Boroni, Fernando A. Perini, Paulo Boggiani, Luís Henrique Sapiensa Almeida, Peter Mann Toledo, and Leandro O. Salles
Informa UK Limited
ABSTRACT Sigmodontine rodents are extremely diversified in the Neotropics but their fossil record remains generally poorly known, especially in Brazil. Here, we examine the assemblage of sigmodontines from the limestone cave Nossa Senhora Aparecida (21°5ʹ27.89”S 56°34ʹ28.77”W), located in Serra da Bodoquena (Mato Grosso do Sul), a karstic region in southwestern Brazil. We describe cranial and dental fragments and recognise the presence of some new species not previously recorded for the region, as Bibimys sp., Graomys cf. G. chacoensis, Thalpomys lasiotis, and Pseudoryzomys simplex. This fossil assemblage is comparable to others fossil sites in Brazil, such as those from Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul, with the predominance of species from open areas, including grasslands, and some of forested environments from Cerrado landscapes.
Patrícia F. Pinho, Luciano J. S. Anjos, Saulo Rodrigues-Filho, Diogo V. Santos, and Peter M. Toledo
Sustentabilidade em Debate Editora de Livros IABS
Climate change has been considered, at a global level, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers of environmental transformation, especially on biomes, ecosystems and the most vulnerable population. In this regard, the concept of resilience has been widely used in ecology to explain the ecosystem transition thresholds by which forests and other habitats are able to restructure in the face of various external disturbances. However, the concept of resilience in facing climate change impacts and risks through the lens of socio-environmental risks in Brazil is still underdeveloped, especially at the biome level. This article uses the theory of critical transitions to ecological niche distribution modeling in future global warming scenarios by the end of the century, in order to highlight the change in ecological resilience of the Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pampa biomes, and how the changes in resilience can lead to an increased exposure, vulnerabilities and risks to socio-environmental security. This article shows how an interdisciplinary approach bringing together modeling of biome resilience may be a tool to support decision making and public policies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change and reduce risks to socio-environmental security.
JONAS PEREIRA DE SOUZA-FILHO, EDSON GUILHERME, PETER MANN DE TOLEDO, ISMAR DE SOUZA CARVALHO, FRANCISCO RICARDO NEGRI, ANDRÉA APARECIDA DA ROCHA MACIENTE, GIOVANNE M. CIDADE, MAURO BRUNO DA SILVA LACERDA, and LUCY GOMES DE SOUZA
Magnolia Press
The Solimões Formation (Eocene-Pliocene) is a well-known geological unit due to the great diversity of crocodylian species. Here we describe a new species of Melanosuchus, M. latrubessei sp. nov., from the Talismã locality, state of Amazonas, from the Upper Miocene of the Solimões Formation (Solimões Basin, Brazil). A new phylogenetic inference focused on Caimaninae is provided and the different evolutionary scenarios involving this new species are discussed. In addition, quantitative morphology studies are carried out and comments regarding the paleoecology aspects of this new species are made. M. latrubessei represents a medium-sized generalist predator, being proportional to the medium-sized M. niger. This new species inhabited the drainages of the Solimões Formation and was ecologically related to other taxa of crocodylians during the proto-Amazon Miocene. The evolutionary advantages of Melanosuchus genus are discussed to better understand the biogeographical occurrence of M. niger in South America, a species which survives to this day in contrast to several other species that became extinct during the Miocene-Pliocene periods. The extinction of the Miocene-Pliocene crocodylian taxa of the Solimões Formation, including Melanosuchus latrubessei, seems to be directly related with the uplift of the northern portions of the Andes, which generated significantly changes in drainages and Amazon paleoenvironments.
Leandro de Oliveira Salles, Fernando Araújo Perini, Carlos Rodrigues de Moraes Neto, Fernando Lencastre Sicuro, Joaquin Arroyo-Cabrales, Patrícia Gonçalves Guedes, Fernando Verassani Laureano, Emílio Manuel Calvo, Luiz Flamarion Barbosa de Oliveira, José Luis Passos Cordeiro,et al.
Elsevier BV
Francinelli Angeli Francisco do Vale, Peter Mann de Toledo, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, and Roberto Araújo Oliveira Santos Junior
El Colegio Mexiquense, A. C.
Este trabalho analisou o desempenho de sustentabilidade de 26 municípios do arco do desmatamento no estado do Pará, Brasil nos anos 2000 e 2010, utilizando-se o Barômetro da Sustentabilidade com 31 indicadores nas dimensões social, econômica e ambiental. Os resultados mostram que Altamira e Novo Progresso tem desempenho intermediário nos dois anos e cinco municípios progrediram para o nível intermediário em 2010 enquanto os outros permaneceram em situação crítica. Houve desaceleração do desmatamento nos municípios, mas apesar dos resultados positivos alcançados, eles foram pouco satisfatórios para mudar o status de sustentabilidade dos municípios.
Dilce de Fátima Rossetti, Peter Mann de Toledo, and Márcio de Morisson Valeriano
Elsevier BV
DILCE F. ROSSETTI, GABRIEL M. MOULATLET, HANNA TUOMISTO, ROGÉRIO GRIBEL, PETER M. TOLEDO, MÁRCIO M. VALERIANO, KALLE RUOKOLAINEN, MARCELO C.L. COHEN, CARLOS L.O. CORDEIRO, CAMILO D. RENNÓ,et al.
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
What controls the formation of patchy substrates of white sand vegetation in the Amazonian lowlands is still unclear. This research integrated the geological history and plant inventories of a white sand vegetation patch confined to one large fan-shaped sandy substrate of northern Amazonia, which is related to a megafan environment. We examined floristic patterns to determine whether abundant species are more often generalists than the rarer one, by comparing the megafan environments and older basement rocks. We also investigated the pattern of species accumulation as a function of increasing sampling effort. All plant groups recorded a high proportion of generalist species on the megafan sediments compared to older basement rocks. The vegetation structure is controlled by topographic gradients resulting from the smooth slope of the megafan morphology and microreliefs imposed by various megafan subenvironments. Late Pleistocene-Holocene environmental disturbances caused by megafan sedimentary processes controlled the distribution of white sand vegetation over a large area of the Amazonian lowlands, and may have also been an important factor in species diversification during this period. The integration of geological and biological data may shed new light on the existence of many patches of white sand vegetation from the plains of northern Amazonia.
Luis Vladimir Mora Andrade, Gerciene De Jesus Miranda Lobato, Peter Mann de Toledo, and Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira
Universidade Federal do Parana
Galápagos é um arquipélago considerado como um laboratório para o estudo da evolução, o primeiro Parque Nacional do Equador, e é Patrimônio Natural da Humanidade. Entretanto, com a chegada de cerca de 218 mil turistas ao ano, há pressão sobre os frágeis ecossistemas deste arquipélago insular. Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar o Sistema Sócio-Ecológico (SSE) da Ilha São Cristovão a partir das percepções dos habitantes sobre ameaças, mudanças e impactos ocorridos a partir da publicação da Lei Especial de Galápagos em 10 de março de 1998 até 2017. As informações obtidas basearam-se em entrevistas semiestruturadas com 260 moradores. Ademais, aplicaram-se as técnicas exploratórias de análise fatorial de correspondência múltipla “AFCM" para 30 variáveis cuja descrição perpassa os problemas discutidos nas sessões da Organização das Nações Unidas para a Educação, a Ciência e a Cultura (UNESCO). A Ilha São Cristovão apresenta homens (53,46%) e mulheres (46,54%) residindo principalmente em Porto Baquerizo (71,92%); a maioria (60%) proveniente de Galápagos. As correlações da análise estatística evidenciaram uma tendência a respostas positivas, contudo sinalizaram alguns impactos no modo de vida, especialmente relacionado ao aumento do turismo, às espécies introduzidas e à redução da mina, devido a extração de areia, cascalho e pedra para fazer as construções. Diante desse cenário, os atores locais delineiam um sistema com nuances sociais, ambientais e econômicas interligadas, mas conflitantes, necessitando de uma gestão mais eficaz.
ROBERTO ARAÚJO, IMA CÉLIA GUIMARÃES VIEIRA, PETER MANN DE TOLEDO, ANDRÉA DOS SANTOS COELHO, ELOI DALLA-NORA, and FELIPE MILANEZ
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é contribuir com o debate acerca do desmatamento no contexto da evolução das políticas de gestão fundiária e territorial na Amazônia, destacando seu papel relevante para o reconhecimento de direitos políticos de categorias sociais minoritárias. A associação do desmatamento na Amazônia sempre esteve correlacionada a problemas sociais e envolve diferentes agentes e fatores causadores conforme a área de abrangência e o momento de sua realização. Procuram-se evidenciar alguns dos principais fatores institucionais que contribuem para pôr em xeque as conquistas do modelo socioambiental por meio de um estudo de caso no assentamento rural categoria Projeto Agroextrativista Praialta-Piranheira, Pará. Essa análise permite concluir que a falta de coerência institucional representa um aspecto estrutural cujo desconhecimento incapacita a compreensão das dinâmicas territoriais da Amazônia.
Janaína Guidolini, Angélica Giarolla, Peter Toledo, Carlos Valera, and Jean Ometto
MDPI AG
Water resources are fundamental for the social and economic development of a country and sustainability is the best approach to treat water-related problems. Therefore, sustainability studies of water resources are deemed urgent. Sustainability analysis methods should enable space-temporal monitoring, decision-making, and development of policies necessary for water governance. Furthermore, sustainability analysis methods should also integrate environment and socioeconomic variables into a single system. In this context, this study aimed to assess the water sustainability conditions of the River Grande Basin (BHRG), Brazil, before the implementation of the Integrated Water Resources Plan (IWRP), using the Barometer of Sustainability tool (BS). The River Grande basin was in an “almost unsustainable” condition and under high environmental stress. A significant imbalance between environmental and human well-being in the system was also observed. To achieve an acceptable sustainability condition, it is thus necessary to improve the environmental quality of the area. Among the priority thematic area, native vegetation recovery was the most urgent. Overall, the sustainability study based on the BS not only facilitates comprehension regarding environment and human interrelationships, but also provide references for policy formulations and water management.