Elmira

RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS

Atmospheric Science, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Aquatic Science, Global and Planetary Change

Scopus Publications

Transformation of seasonal distribution of river flow in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water basin under changing climate conditions
Smagulov Zhanibek, Makhmudova Lyazzat, Sayat Alimkulov, Elmira Talipova, Zagidullina Alfiya, Birimbayeva Lyazzat, and Sailaubek Akgulim
IWA Publishing
ABSTRACT Under conditions of increasing climatic uncertainty, this scientific study analyzes multi-year trends of seasonal distribution of river flow in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water basin. In specific natural conditions of the territory under consideration, under scarce water resources availability in the vast territory, and exceptional variability of river flow in time, the problem of water supply is especially important. The paper considers multi-year dynamics of runoff-forming factors and flow parameters taking into account phases of different water availability. River flow estimation methods include analyses of average monthly maximum and minimum values of river flow. The assessment of homogeneity of river flow series was carried out on the basis of genetic analysis and statistical analysis, application of Mann–Kendall test, Student's t test, and Fisher criterion. The identified results indicate significant transformations in the river flow in the basin: the share of spring flow has decreased, while the share of low-water flow, especially in winter, has increased. These changes are associated with higher winter temperatures and an increase in the frequency of winter thaws. In the River Elek Basin, the share of spring flow decreased to 40% of the annual value, and in the River Or Basin, to 15%.


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on drought intensity and frequency using SPI and SPEI in the Southern Pre-Balkash region, Kazakhstan
Alimkulov Sayat, Makhmudova Lyazzat, Talipova Elmira, Baspakova Gaukhar, and Monkayeva Gulsara
Elsevier BV



Assessing the Vulnerability of Lakes in Western Kazakhstan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Stressors
Kairat M. Kulebayev, Sayat K. Alimkulov, Aisulu A. Tursunova, Lyazzat K. Makhmudova, Elmira K. Talipova, Assel A. Saparova, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, and Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri
MDPI AG
The global water crisis, which intensifies each year, underscores the urgent need for accurate assessment and sustainable management of freshwater resources. Lakes, as significant components of surface water systems, are particularly vulnerable to human activities and climate change due to their slow renewal rates. Western Kazakhstan, a region affected by economic development and intensive mining activities, faces acute water scarcity. A reliable water supply is crucial to meeting the requirements of industrial operations and the needs of the region’s population. Understanding the dynamics of lake systems and implementing effective conservation and restoration strategies are essential to addressing this challenge. This study, employing cartographic and remote sensing techniques, identified 323 lakes in Western Kazakhstan, covering a total area of 1944 km2. Comparative analysis with historical data from the 1960s and 1970s revealed a 23% decrease in the number of lakes exceeding 1 km2. The most significant decline was observed in the Atyrau and Mangystau Regions, where the number of such lakes diminished by a factor of three. These findings highlight the pressing need for an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to water resource management in Western Kazakhstan.


Response of the water level of the Balkash Lake to the distribution of meteorological and hydrological droughts under the conditions of climate change
Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, E. K. Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Dimitris Tigkas, and Isakan Gulsaira
IWA Publishing
ABSTRACT Hydrological droughts occur due to a variety of hydrometeorological phenomena, such as lack of precipitation, reduced snow cover and high evaporation. The values of these factors vary depending on the climate and the severity of drought events. Droughts caused by a lack of precipitation and continuing in the warm season have a longer periodicity. This important statement raises the question of whether climate change may exacerbate the phenomenon of drought. Therefore, understanding changes in the formation of hydrological droughts is key to foreseeing possible changes in the future. This scientific study analyzes the spread of hydrometeorological droughts in the Ile-Balkash basin using standardized precipitation indices and the drought index of river runoff. Lake Balkash plays an important role in the hydrological cycle and is a valuable freshwater resource, especially in dry years. Prolonged droughts in the area have serious consequences, including deterioration of water quality and loss of wetlands, which are important to the ecological system and migratory birds. The analysis shows that during the period of instrumental observations, several extreme hydrological droughts were observed in this area, (1943–1946, 1973–1975 and 1983–1987), which emphasizes the relevance and importance of scientific research on the problem of drought.


LONG TERM FORECAST OF THE MONTHLY FLOW HYDROGRAPH OF YERTIS RIVER (VILLAGE BORAN) BASED ON COMBINED STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE RIVER FLOW AND PRECIPITATION
S.K. Davletgaliev, S.K. Alimkulov, A.A. Tursunova, and E.K. Talipova
National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakshtan



Influence of climate change and anthropogenic factors on the Ile River basin streamflow, Kazakhstan
Elmira Talipova, Sangam Shrestha, Sayat Alimkulov, Ayman Nyssanbayeva, Aisulu Tursunova, and Gulsaira Isakan
Springer Science and Business Media LLC



The possibility to applying simulated series for compile scenario forecasting river runoff
Saken K. Davletgaliev, Sayat K. Alimkulov, and Elmira K. Talipova
Springer Science and Business Media LLC